Obama An Intellectual NOT A Cowboy.

“We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our founding fathers, faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake.” With those words on inaugural day Obama assumed the mantle of leadership but he has since left many confused as they have tried to define his leadership style or explain the Obama Doctrine.

Leadership style is the manner and approach of providing direction, implementing plans, and motivating people (Nel  et al., 2006).

Obama (Leadership style) has embodied the epitome of a true intellectual where actions are not determined by precedent or policy but by practicality and prudence, generously garnished with thoughtful insight. He has shown that instincts are not a substitute for fact. This approach may have alienated him from his base, emboldened his opponents to go for his jugular and weakened his position.

The first major issue he tackled shortly after taking the oath of office was the financial down turn that started in 2008. He adopted a similar package already started by G. Bush by passing the stimulus package which was less than what most leading democrats had suggested but contrary to the “no-action policy” the republicans wanted. On the health care debate he adopted the same attitude by outlining the frame work for the bill while leaving the specifics for the congressional leaders to iron out resulting in compromises in key components he would have wanted such as the single payer system. When it came to Afghanistan, he took his time (6 months) to make up his mind and his final decision was a troop surge less than was requested but sufficient to do the job. One year later (in June this year) he announced the objectives had been broadly achieved and troop withdrawal would begin in earnest at a pace too slow for the democrats and contrary to republican wishes that want more season of fighting at huge costs to the tax payer. In his Afghanistan draw down speech he (Obama) acknowledged this fact when he said, “Some would have America retreat from our responsibility as an anchor of global security, and embrace an isolation that ignores the very real threats that we face. Others would have America over-extend ourselves, confronting every evil that can be found abroad. WE MUST CHART A MORE CENTRED COURSE.”

What has emerged over the last two and half years of Obama leadership is a man who is willing to lead by broad consensus. One who tries to appease all except himself, ever willing to accept the middle-road in dealing with issues and happy to accept criticism from the public. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his address to the congress with a condescending tone literally belittled Obama before a congress yet Obama’s response was conciliatory and as always optimistic of two State solution of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

 
Obama’s leadership style is definitely not one that we are used to from politicians but at a time when America is divided, with deep economic and social problems, he sure stands as the only beacon of sensibility in the confused world of partisan politics.

Why Obama Is NOT Likely to Lose in 2012; A Response to Karl Rove

In Washington very few are as trusted as Karl Rove in predicting political futures and organising the political machine to see it through. Even George Bush acknowledged him as the "Architect" of his 2004 re-election victory. 

In his article (Why Obama Is Likely to Lose in 2012) in the Wall Street Journal Mr Rove highlighted four serious reasons why Obama will lose in 2012.  I will attempt to debunk these facts as wishful thinking and uniformed insight.

The first point highlighted by Rove is the high unemployment rate of 9.1% with 14 million Americans currently unemployed. It is true that figures don’t lie but sometimes they don’t paint the complete picture. 

When Obama took office in January 2009 the economy was haemorrhaging 800,000 jobs monthly, jobless claims was hovering around 1 million monthly, the stock market index was below the 7000 mark while retail sales were down. Today the picture is different with over 2 million private sector jobs added, the stock market is at a high of above 12000 and non-farm payrolls have consistently been positive for 15 straight months and jobless claims down to 400,000 monthly.   

The reasons for the consistently high unemployment which are dependent on facts beyond any president’s control include:

1.     The cost of crude oil has been consistently high (due to the Middle-East conflict)  and this along with other factors such as the Japanese Tsunami and reduced global industrial output has gradually resulted in a sustained increase of consumer price index which currently stands at a 12month high translating to reduces retail sales.

2.    The 900 billion dollar economic stimulus package (AKA TARP- Troubled Assets Relief Program) resulted in a boost to the economy by preventing cuts in jobs of middle class folks (teachers, fire fighters etc.). As these funds have run out State and Local governments have been steadily shedding jobs faster than the private sector can pick them up resulting in a net unemployment.

3.     Though business confidence is at an all-time high and US corporations are making record profits while sitting on substantial cash reserves, the rate of hiring has been quite poor. The companies after the economic decline have instead invested heavily in machinery which are at their cheapest level as they are now sourced oversees notably from China and they have the added advantage of writing off the expenditure as capital investment against business taxes.

4.    Finally unemployment is always the first to be hit and last to recover during an economic downturn. 

While the above factors may work against Obama’s re-election bid it’s my prediction and that of Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, that the economic outlook for next year will be more positive as business confidence reaches new levels and the housing market bottoms with subsequent increase in hiring by the private sector with a decline in unemployment rate to about 8% or better by election day.

Mr Rove also pointed out that President Obama has a problem with his base; highlighting the fact that even Jewish voters were deserting him. This to me is pure speculation. But flipping the coin over (to the GOP side); Mitt Romney or his mirror image (Jon Huntsman) will win the GOP nomination. This will alienate the far right in the GOP, who have always felt that these candidates have flip-flopped on social issues such as abortion, strong national security stance, health care and are seen to be weak on their resolve to insensibly cut government spending.  

As the GOP nomination field currently stands, no single candidate has a strong personal persona or policy to gain the hearts of the independents that form the deciding voting bloc. As per Obama’s base I have a strong confidence that it’ll take the GOP candidate nomination to spur them into action.

The health care reform passed into law was highlighted by Mr Rove as an achilles heel for President Obama re-election bid. This is an incomplete truth. 

As provisions of the law start to kick in next year through 2014, it will offer more than 30 million people with access to health care while preventing discrimination of people from access to health insurance due to pre-existing conditions, providing Obama the biggest boost to his re-election bid. It has to be noted that the rising cost of health care which is being experienced as result of wider coverage will mostly affect a large population of the electorate who wouldn’t have voted for Obama in the first place.

An icing on the cake of health care debate is the Paul Ryan’s health care overhaul which has targeted the seniors by attempting to turn Medicare into a voucher program as a means of reducing cost. This is a gift to Obama’s election bid as the seniors have traditionally been known as the most reliable voting bloc.

The last point raised by Mr Rove that Obama should not be campaigning is simply BS and need not be justified. Obama is set to raise a record 1 billion dollars surpassing the 750 million dollars raised during his last campaign. This puts him far ahead of the pack of wolves that form the current GOP nomination field.

Obama is on a sure path to re-election in 2012 and I hope Mr Rove will clearly read the writing on the wall and not be blind-sided by wishful thinking.

Revolutions: Europe & Middle East; Similarities and Prospects

Max Weber (1864 –1920) a German sociologist and political economist argued that for economic change to take place Cultural Revolution had to occur first. He was of course referring to Europe not Tunisia or Egypt and certainly not Libya.

A little History (Europe): The end of the Middle Ages at the end of the 14th century was precipitated by the Black Death that wiped out a large portion of the population creating labour shortages and increases in wages. This ushered in “The Renaissance (14th  to the 17th century)”, a period of increased individuality and the church which was the pinnacle of knowledge saw a decline in its power.  This period was characterized the resurgence of the interest in the arts and intellectual re-awakening. The rise of “individualism” was a force too strong to contain and dovetailed into “The European Revolutions”, catalyzed by poverty but lubricated The Enlightenment (the period which led to many European writers to criticise the Monarchy and espousing democratic, liberalist, nationalist and socialist ideas). This series of changes laid the frame work for the industrial age that brought about economic liberation of Europe.

In an attempt to understand the current uprising in the Middle East, what struck me was the similarity between the changes in the Middle East and the changes that swept Europe leading to their economic liberation; the only difference was the timeline.

When Mohamed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian fruit seller, set himself on fire he only kick-started the next phase of a process that was already in the works. 

Over last 50 years the demo-graphical picture of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been transformed from a pyramid shaped one to a pear shaped demographic picture as a result of the explosion of the youth population. In the MENA region as a whole, age 20-24s have grown steadily from 10 million in 1950 to 36 million today, and will grow steadily to at least 56 million by 2050.

 

This bulging middle class is a highly literate one with literacy rates as high as 91.3% in Jordan and 50.2% in Yamen. Only Iraq has an explainable literacy rate less than 50% at 40.4%. Transformation in technology has provided this educated young populace with the strongest tool they require “information”. They have realised like the Europeans did (during the Period of The Renaissance) ; “They are first individuals (individualization) and they have a voice”. Just like the decline of the strangle hold the church had on intellectual thinking during The Renaissance so have the people of this region realised that their religion “is a part of their life” not “all of their life".

World Bank chief Economist Mustapha Nabli and Farrukh Iqbal noted that “one in every five persons in the region could be considered poor at living on less than $1 per day and this proportion stayed roughly constant for most of the 1990s”. This level of poverty (like happened Europe) catalysed the revolutionary change which was also lubricated by Enlightenment.

If my theory of the change is right, the Middle East and North Africa is on a sure path to economic transformation that has not been matched. Unlike Europe that lacked resources, this region boasts massive reserves that are can drive economic growth and a highly literate young population that can effect the change.

We have seen the cultural change, the political change is in the works and now we await the economic transformation.

China’s Economic Rise; Reality and Fears

China passed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter of 2010  and  according to the BBC will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by the end of the decade.

This is scary!!!!

Never in world history has a homogenously closed country with the largest population been the world's economic power. The implication of this is that China will determine not just world trade but world culture by share numbers. Literally China can be the de-facto capital of the world not by definite policies but by its trends and not require any input from other cultures/societies simply because of its closed or relatively unknown culture and a large population that will make external labour unnecessary.

Gordon Brown on CNN tried to allay these fears by saying the West will benefit from the change by “reverse trade” with China; but in reality is this possible? China despite its bulging middle class still remains closed and they have systematically devalued their currency while keeping expectations of their populace relatively low thus stagnating the cost of labour, while making their exports ridiculously cheap.

Anybody can be an American, British or even Japanese but NEVER Chinese (91.59% of the Chinese population, approximately 1.2billion people, belong to one tribe the Han tribe). This means that labour, finance and trade flow will be a one way; from China to the rest of the world and resources the other way aka NEO-SLAVERY.




The story of China’s ghost city as seen in Zhengzhou and Ordos provinces where the government can wake up and build a city to house millions and nobody lives in them exemplifies this concern. The world needs to wake up to the fact that if China’s economy overtakes the American economy, we shall all become slaves of some sort.

Sexuality and Universality of Morals

On issues of sexuality, like religion it is almost impossible to get an ideal point of view that is universally acceptable as they are based on the inherent rights of individuals to express themselves. 

Society is "evolving" and so is the general perception of sexuality. The only view which is universally acceptable is the "PERSONAL" view which applicable only to the individual. This on the other hand does not stop  us from taking a stand and expressing our views. The only last beacon of commonality which is binding on all still remains the judiciary, which though is supposed to be impartial, is also "EVOLVING".‎

My views on sexuality & marriage are traditional not relative because they will never change (but they remain personal). This stance does not preclude the fact that the issues do have societal implications. Using the argument on murder and the law; only a few years back euthanasia was equivalent to murder/criminal homicide. Today it is legal in Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland. This does not make it morally right, neither does it change my view or that of others (like minded), but it does have societal implications. If I practice in any of these locations I have the option to opt out (a personal choice) but that does not change the legality of the issue. This is a typical example of our “evolving society”, where personal responsibility is key to maintaining and sustaining morality. 

It is indeed impossible to get an ideal point of view that is universally acceptable, no matter how much we wish or whine.

Obama; Presidency, Abortion and Myth about Health Care Law

It’s strange how Obama has become the most divisive president in recent times especially when he came on a big wave of optimism and according to Gail Collins of the NYT; “Obama has acheieved a greater domestic agenda than any president in the last half-century”. 

An article by T. Hobson missed  the point in suggesting that Obama’s rise to presidency was based on a religious undertone; quite on the contrary as even Obama’s  former pastor (J. Wright) admitted that he was the first to be thrown under the bus, and to date he’s the only US president to least attend church publicly since JFK.

A quick fact check and you will realise that Obama has done more for the unborn than any other US president since Roosevelt passed Social Security Act in 1935. He passed the biggest reform to health care which will provides health care to more than 40 million Americans; including the unborn. This is the biggest single gift to the unborn. And contrary to all the rumours the bill does not mention abortion in its entirety , but rather Obama has signed an executive order preventing its use for abortion.
 

Obama pro-choice stance is quite simply and reasonable; the decision should be left to the women as none of them come to this lightly. This point of view is quite different from supporting abortion as it embodies empathy and reality in dealing with the issue as opposed to idealism. As Roe Vs Wade (1973) affirmed, the 14^th amendment must stand tall and in subtle way emphasizes the right to privacy.

RE: Nigeria’s Promise, Africa’s Hope

A response to New York Time Op-Ed article “Nigeria’s Promise, Africa’s Hope”, by CHINUA ACHEBE 

Achebe reiterated the old story about the Nigerian problem and that’s where he got it all wrong. The Nigeria Achebe knew had a problem, now we DON’T. The premise of calling it a problem implies a departure from the norm, but in Nigeria the norm is the new reality.  Nigeria used to be divided, our leaders corrupt, some parts largely illiterate, others majorly traders and so on. That was the Nigeria the 80yr old Achebe knew, but that’s all history now. The people AND the leaders are the problem. Our values have evolved (Darwin's theory) under years exposure the stimulus of corruption and division. We (Nigerians- majority) all think alike now. We haven’t been more united in a common belief that all that ‘used to be wrong’, is now right.

Nigeria of today can likened to a guy being in love with a girl but in his fear to express his feeling allowed time to pass and now he has crossed the line where they are ‘best of friends’ and he can’t express his feelings any more. We have long courted all the things ‘that we once thought were wrong’, that now we can’t speak out anymore and perhaps LOVE what we now see. Nigeria has indeed evolved to what it is today. The realities are; PDP (the ruling political party) will be return to power, epileptic power will continue into the next decade, corruption will be rife from the pulpit to the president, kidnapping will continue (the amount demanded may reduce so that volume may increase), education will continue to be appalling and on and on....

I hope am wrong.

Solution; we need an evolution from our new realties to what it is in other parts of the world. A starting point will be to stop blaming the colonial masters (as Achebe often likes to) and face our realities. Anybody born at the time of independence has lived 3yrs beyond his life expectancy (life expectancy in Nigeria is 47.8yrs) and should blame no one but himself. Our pains/problems are self inflicted and so will the right solution.

Chinua Achebe, a professor at Brown University, is the author of “Things Fall Apart.”

AS WE GROW...THE THOUGHT OF A REALIST

As we grow up, we learn that even the one person that wasn't supposed to ever let us down probably will. You'll have your heart broken and you'll break others' hearts. You'll fight with your best friend or maybe even fall in love with them, and you'll cry because time is flying by. So take too many pictures, laugh too much, forgive freely, and love like you've never been hurt.

Life comes with no guarantees, no time outs, and no second chances. You just have to live life to the fullest, tell someone what they mean to you and tell someone off, speak out, dance in the pouring rain, hold someone's hand, comfort a friend, fall asleep watching the sun come up, stay up late, be a flirt, and smile until your face hurts. Don't be afraid to take chances or fall in love, most of all.

Dream what you want to dream, go where you want to go, be what you want to be. Because you have only one life and one chance to do all the things you want to do.  Live in the moment because every second you spend angry or upset is a second of happiness you can never get back. It's true that we don't know what we've got until we lose it, but it's also true that we don't know what we've been missing until it arrives

-Unknown

Favourite Sarah Palin Jokes

''Sarah Palin got an iPad and she was complaining that it's not really that absorbent.'' —Bill Maher

''According to expense reports, Sarah Palin charged the state of Alaska over $21,000 for her children to travel with her on official business. In fairness to Gov. Palin, when she leaves them home alone they get pregnant.'' —Seth Meyers

''This week Sarah Palin's memoir became a bestseller. It's not even out yet. It's being translated in English.'' —Bill Maher 

''People in Alaska are looking forward to Sarah Palin's memoir. They're already calling it 'The Book to Nowhere.''' —David Letterman

''Earlier today, Governor Sarah Palin held a meeting with several leaders from other countries to showcase her foreign policy expertise. That's right, yeah. Experts say the meeting took 90 seconds.'' —Conan O'Brien

''Well, according to a new post-election survey, people want Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012. It says she's been getting thousands of calls from people pleading with her to run, all Democrats.'' —Jay Leno

''Sarah Palin's new autobiography doesn't come out until November, but it is already No. 1 on Amazon. And if you go to the website, it says, 'People who bought this book also bought no other books in their entire life.''' —Jimmy Fallon

Sarah is a bad case of "Payton Place" syndrome. Good looks for white trash but no intellectual value whatsoever. - Unknown

''Naturally the smart thing to do to solve your economic woes is to demonize the Democrats. And of course, Sarah Palin is more than happy to oblige. She's been saying that Obama hangs out with terrorists. And you know, I think the evangelical lady who's in a video getting blessed by a witch doctor, who's married to a secessionist, and can't name a newspaper — she's right, Obama is scary.'' —Bill Maher