Revolutions: Europe & Middle East; Similarities and Prospects

Max Weber (1864 –1920) a German sociologist and political economist argued that for economic change to take place Cultural Revolution had to occur first. He was of course referring to Europe not Tunisia or Egypt and certainly not Libya.

A little History (Europe): The end of the Middle Ages at the end of the 14th century was precipitated by the Black Death that wiped out a large portion of the population creating labour shortages and increases in wages. This ushered in “The Renaissance (14th  to the 17th century)”, a period of increased individuality and the church which was the pinnacle of knowledge saw a decline in its power.  This period was characterized the resurgence of the interest in the arts and intellectual re-awakening. The rise of “individualism” was a force too strong to contain and dovetailed into “The European Revolutions”, catalyzed by poverty but lubricated The Enlightenment (the period which led to many European writers to criticise the Monarchy and espousing democratic, liberalist, nationalist and socialist ideas). This series of changes laid the frame work for the industrial age that brought about economic liberation of Europe.

In an attempt to understand the current uprising in the Middle East, what struck me was the similarity between the changes in the Middle East and the changes that swept Europe leading to their economic liberation; the only difference was the timeline.

When Mohamed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian fruit seller, set himself on fire he only kick-started the next phase of a process that was already in the works. 

Over last 50 years the demo-graphical picture of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been transformed from a pyramid shaped one to a pear shaped demographic picture as a result of the explosion of the youth population. In the MENA region as a whole, age 20-24s have grown steadily from 10 million in 1950 to 36 million today, and will grow steadily to at least 56 million by 2050.

 

This bulging middle class is a highly literate one with literacy rates as high as 91.3% in Jordan and 50.2% in Yamen. Only Iraq has an explainable literacy rate less than 50% at 40.4%. Transformation in technology has provided this educated young populace with the strongest tool they require “information”. They have realised like the Europeans did (during the Period of The Renaissance) ; “They are first individuals (individualization) and they have a voice”. Just like the decline of the strangle hold the church had on intellectual thinking during The Renaissance so have the people of this region realised that their religion “is a part of their life” not “all of their life".

World Bank chief Economist Mustapha Nabli and Farrukh Iqbal noted that “one in every five persons in the region could be considered poor at living on less than $1 per day and this proportion stayed roughly constant for most of the 1990s”. This level of poverty (like happened Europe) catalysed the revolutionary change which was also lubricated by Enlightenment.

If my theory of the change is right, the Middle East and North Africa is on a sure path to economic transformation that has not been matched. Unlike Europe that lacked resources, this region boasts massive reserves that are can drive economic growth and a highly literate young population that can effect the change.

We have seen the cultural change, the political change is in the works and now we await the economic transformation.

America: The End of An Empire

The US has always been a force to reckon with, spreading the fruits of democracy from coast to coast. They have risked men and materials in foreign lands, spilt blood and sweat all over the world. The United States has been a modern day empire, the sole force and sometimes only voice of good in a world riddled with “evil”.

The journey to transform the world, based on the universal concept of democracy and freedom for all humans is a goal America has championed and no one can ignore. Like all things good, America as a superpower has an expiration date and it just round the corner.

Walking down the streets of Sarasota, Florida the effects of the global down turn can be clearly seen in the empty streets and restaurants that once bubbled with eager shoppers. The people though not unhappy look uninspired. Their faces tell the tale that they have seen the best days of their lives pass them by. The financial sector collapse dealt America a big blow and with unemployment stubbornly at 9.6% and the best of forecasters projecting the figure not to go below 8% by 2012, America is sure in trouble.

The economic downturn though the precipitating factor for the decline of Americas global influence is not the major factor for the decline.

China has experienced an outstanding level of growth with first quarter 2010 growth rates of 11.9%  only slowing down to 9.6%  in the third quarter. The Peoples Republic has achieved this by basically exporting its way out of recession into unprecedented economic growth. They have done this by systematically devaluing their currency while keeping expectations of their populace relatively low thus stagnating the cost of labour, while making their exports ridiculously cheap. Massive expenditure on infrastructure which was catalysed by the bid and subsequent hosting of the Olympic games in Beijing, provided a steady flow of “shovel ready jobs”, while the new infrastructure and traditional allure set China as an emerging tourist destination.

In America the economic downturn was followed by the passage of the stimulus package which was touted to create shovel ready jobs but only ended up stimulating the consumption appetite for Chinese made goods without clearly generating the badly needed jobs. The one trillion spent only ended expending the deficit to GDP ratio to unsustainable high levels. 

The level of the deficit has brought out the worst in the American spirit while creating road blocks for its correction. The American society has become highly charged and polarized.  The centre no longer exists and unfortunately this is where the solution lies. The proposals put up by the deficit commission to solve the deficit problem, though the gospel truth, will never see the light of day. The American spirit described by David Brooks  as “ a nation of  bourgeois families who want to thrive within a secure social order”, will not allow expected cuts to be made as being experienced all over Europe.

The slow disintegration of the traditional one American voice is gradually filtering around the world and the concept that America cannot solve its problems is palpable in every major city of the world. The truth must be told; America is broke, its military is over stretched, its economy is in the tank, it has lost its technology edge, the country is divided and China is on the fast lane of economic growth.

No one likes to be friends with losers especially one that won’t admit it’s a loser. Everyone wants to be friends with success and China is the world best friend. They have a strong economy, relatively sensible spending on defence, large investment in cutting edge technology, don’t poke their nose where they don’t   belong and enough in foreign reserves to buy the heart of America and the rest of the world.

The combined force of unprecedented economic growth in China and American economic decline has made America to hit the self-destruct button of social division and polarization. Not even a rock star President like Obama can bring back the American shine as seen by his recent trip to Asia where he couldn’t even sign a  trade deal with South Korea ( America’s most trusted ally in Asia).  Donald Trump lamenting the lack of respect for America on Fox News said, “nobody respects us any more”, I say who will when you have made all the wrong choices and put pride before purpose. Even Obama said, “they (the far right) talk about me like a dog”, and I say don’t be expected to be treated differently outside.

America as an empire has expired, but it must not fail to put back the smile on the faces on millions of Americans who currently are out of their jobs, experiencing falling standards of education, have no access to health care and wait for daily food handouts on lines that get longer every day. A failure as a superpower should not mean a failure as a home power. The centre must be restored, pride put aside and common sense approach to put the economy back should be adopted.