Revolutions: Europe & Middle East; Similarities and Prospects

Max Weber (1864 –1920) a German sociologist and political economist argued that for economic change to take place Cultural Revolution had to occur first. He was of course referring to Europe not Tunisia or Egypt and certainly not Libya.

A little History (Europe): The end of the Middle Ages at the end of the 14th century was precipitated by the Black Death that wiped out a large portion of the population creating labour shortages and increases in wages. This ushered in “The Renaissance (14th  to the 17th century)”, a period of increased individuality and the church which was the pinnacle of knowledge saw a decline in its power.  This period was characterized the resurgence of the interest in the arts and intellectual re-awakening. The rise of “individualism” was a force too strong to contain and dovetailed into “The European Revolutions”, catalyzed by poverty but lubricated The Enlightenment (the period which led to many European writers to criticise the Monarchy and espousing democratic, liberalist, nationalist and socialist ideas). This series of changes laid the frame work for the industrial age that brought about economic liberation of Europe.

In an attempt to understand the current uprising in the Middle East, what struck me was the similarity between the changes in the Middle East and the changes that swept Europe leading to their economic liberation; the only difference was the timeline.

When Mohamed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian fruit seller, set himself on fire he only kick-started the next phase of a process that was already in the works. 

Over last 50 years the demo-graphical picture of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been transformed from a pyramid shaped one to a pear shaped demographic picture as a result of the explosion of the youth population. In the MENA region as a whole, age 20-24s have grown steadily from 10 million in 1950 to 36 million today, and will grow steadily to at least 56 million by 2050.

 

This bulging middle class is a highly literate one with literacy rates as high as 91.3% in Jordan and 50.2% in Yamen. Only Iraq has an explainable literacy rate less than 50% at 40.4%. Transformation in technology has provided this educated young populace with the strongest tool they require “information”. They have realised like the Europeans did (during the Period of The Renaissance) ; “They are first individuals (individualization) and they have a voice”. Just like the decline of the strangle hold the church had on intellectual thinking during The Renaissance so have the people of this region realised that their religion “is a part of their life” not “all of their life".

World Bank chief Economist Mustapha Nabli and Farrukh Iqbal noted that “one in every five persons in the region could be considered poor at living on less than $1 per day and this proportion stayed roughly constant for most of the 1990s”. This level of poverty (like happened Europe) catalysed the revolutionary change which was also lubricated by Enlightenment.

If my theory of the change is right, the Middle East and North Africa is on a sure path to economic transformation that has not been matched. Unlike Europe that lacked resources, this region boasts massive reserves that are can drive economic growth and a highly literate young population that can effect the change.

We have seen the cultural change, the political change is in the works and now we await the economic transformation.

China’s Economic Rise; Reality and Fears

China passed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter of 2010  and  according to the BBC will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by the end of the decade.

This is scary!!!!

Never in world history has a homogenously closed country with the largest population been the world's economic power. The implication of this is that China will determine not just world trade but world culture by share numbers. Literally China can be the de-facto capital of the world not by definite policies but by its trends and not require any input from other cultures/societies simply because of its closed or relatively unknown culture and a large population that will make external labour unnecessary.

Gordon Brown on CNN tried to allay these fears by saying the West will benefit from the change by “reverse trade” with China; but in reality is this possible? China despite its bulging middle class still remains closed and they have systematically devalued their currency while keeping expectations of their populace relatively low thus stagnating the cost of labour, while making their exports ridiculously cheap.

Anybody can be an American, British or even Japanese but NEVER Chinese (91.59% of the Chinese population, approximately 1.2billion people, belong to one tribe the Han tribe). This means that labour, finance and trade flow will be a one way; from China to the rest of the world and resources the other way aka NEO-SLAVERY.




The story of China’s ghost city as seen in Zhengzhou and Ordos provinces where the government can wake up and build a city to house millions and nobody lives in them exemplifies this concern. The world needs to wake up to the fact that if China’s economy overtakes the American economy, we shall all become slaves of some sort.