Revolutions: Europe & Middle East; Similarities and Prospects

Max Weber (1864 –1920) a German sociologist and political economist argued that for economic change to take place Cultural Revolution had to occur first. He was of course referring to Europe not Tunisia or Egypt and certainly not Libya.

A little History (Europe): The end of the Middle Ages at the end of the 14th century was precipitated by the Black Death that wiped out a large portion of the population creating labour shortages and increases in wages. This ushered in “The Renaissance (14th  to the 17th century)”, a period of increased individuality and the church which was the pinnacle of knowledge saw a decline in its power.  This period was characterized the resurgence of the interest in the arts and intellectual re-awakening. The rise of “individualism” was a force too strong to contain and dovetailed into “The European Revolutions”, catalyzed by poverty but lubricated The Enlightenment (the period which led to many European writers to criticise the Monarchy and espousing democratic, liberalist, nationalist and socialist ideas). This series of changes laid the frame work for the industrial age that brought about economic liberation of Europe.

In an attempt to understand the current uprising in the Middle East, what struck me was the similarity between the changes in the Middle East and the changes that swept Europe leading to their economic liberation; the only difference was the timeline.

When Mohamed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian fruit seller, set himself on fire he only kick-started the next phase of a process that was already in the works. 

Over last 50 years the demo-graphical picture of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been transformed from a pyramid shaped one to a pear shaped demographic picture as a result of the explosion of the youth population. In the MENA region as a whole, age 20-24s have grown steadily from 10 million in 1950 to 36 million today, and will grow steadily to at least 56 million by 2050.

 

This bulging middle class is a highly literate one with literacy rates as high as 91.3% in Jordan and 50.2% in Yamen. Only Iraq has an explainable literacy rate less than 50% at 40.4%. Transformation in technology has provided this educated young populace with the strongest tool they require “information”. They have realised like the Europeans did (during the Period of The Renaissance) ; “They are first individuals (individualization) and they have a voice”. Just like the decline of the strangle hold the church had on intellectual thinking during The Renaissance so have the people of this region realised that their religion “is a part of their life” not “all of their life".

World Bank chief Economist Mustapha Nabli and Farrukh Iqbal noted that “one in every five persons in the region could be considered poor at living on less than $1 per day and this proportion stayed roughly constant for most of the 1990s”. This level of poverty (like happened Europe) catalysed the revolutionary change which was also lubricated by Enlightenment.

If my theory of the change is right, the Middle East and North Africa is on a sure path to economic transformation that has not been matched. Unlike Europe that lacked resources, this region boasts massive reserves that are can drive economic growth and a highly literate young population that can effect the change.

We have seen the cultural change, the political change is in the works and now we await the economic transformation.

China’s Economic Rise; Reality and Fears

China passed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter of 2010  and  according to the BBC will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by the end of the decade.

This is scary!!!!

Never in world history has a homogenously closed country with the largest population been the world's economic power. The implication of this is that China will determine not just world trade but world culture by share numbers. Literally China can be the de-facto capital of the world not by definite policies but by its trends and not require any input from other cultures/societies simply because of its closed or relatively unknown culture and a large population that will make external labour unnecessary.

Gordon Brown on CNN tried to allay these fears by saying the West will benefit from the change by “reverse trade” with China; but in reality is this possible? China despite its bulging middle class still remains closed and they have systematically devalued their currency while keeping expectations of their populace relatively low thus stagnating the cost of labour, while making their exports ridiculously cheap.

Anybody can be an American, British or even Japanese but NEVER Chinese (91.59% of the Chinese population, approximately 1.2billion people, belong to one tribe the Han tribe). This means that labour, finance and trade flow will be a one way; from China to the rest of the world and resources the other way aka NEO-SLAVERY.




The story of China’s ghost city as seen in Zhengzhou and Ordos provinces where the government can wake up and build a city to house millions and nobody lives in them exemplifies this concern. The world needs to wake up to the fact that if China’s economy overtakes the American economy, we shall all become slaves of some sort.

Sexuality and Universality of Morals

On issues of sexuality, like religion it is almost impossible to get an ideal point of view that is universally acceptable as they are based on the inherent rights of individuals to express themselves. 

Society is "evolving" and so is the general perception of sexuality. The only view which is universally acceptable is the "PERSONAL" view which applicable only to the individual. This on the other hand does not stop  us from taking a stand and expressing our views. The only last beacon of commonality which is binding on all still remains the judiciary, which though is supposed to be impartial, is also "EVOLVING".‎

My views on sexuality & marriage are traditional not relative because they will never change (but they remain personal). This stance does not preclude the fact that the issues do have societal implications. Using the argument on murder and the law; only a few years back euthanasia was equivalent to murder/criminal homicide. Today it is legal in Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland. This does not make it morally right, neither does it change my view or that of others (like minded), but it does have societal implications. If I practice in any of these locations I have the option to opt out (a personal choice) but that does not change the legality of the issue. This is a typical example of our “evolving society”, where personal responsibility is key to maintaining and sustaining morality. 

It is indeed impossible to get an ideal point of view that is universally acceptable, no matter how much we wish or whine.

Obama; Presidency, Abortion and Myth about Health Care Law

It’s strange how Obama has become the most divisive president in recent times especially when he came on a big wave of optimism and according to Gail Collins of the NYT; “Obama has acheieved a greater domestic agenda than any president in the last half-century”. 

An article by T. Hobson missed  the point in suggesting that Obama’s rise to presidency was based on a religious undertone; quite on the contrary as even Obama’s  former pastor (J. Wright) admitted that he was the first to be thrown under the bus, and to date he’s the only US president to least attend church publicly since JFK.

A quick fact check and you will realise that Obama has done more for the unborn than any other US president since Roosevelt passed Social Security Act in 1935. He passed the biggest reform to health care which will provides health care to more than 40 million Americans; including the unborn. This is the biggest single gift to the unborn. And contrary to all the rumours the bill does not mention abortion in its entirety , but rather Obama has signed an executive order preventing its use for abortion.
 

Obama pro-choice stance is quite simply and reasonable; the decision should be left to the women as none of them come to this lightly. This point of view is quite different from supporting abortion as it embodies empathy and reality in dealing with the issue as opposed to idealism. As Roe Vs Wade (1973) affirmed, the 14^th amendment must stand tall and in subtle way emphasizes the right to privacy.

RE: Nigeria’s Promise, Africa’s Hope

A response to New York Time Op-Ed article “Nigeria’s Promise, Africa’s Hope”, by CHINUA ACHEBE 

Achebe reiterated the old story about the Nigerian problem and that’s where he got it all wrong. The Nigeria Achebe knew had a problem, now we DON’T. The premise of calling it a problem implies a departure from the norm, but in Nigeria the norm is the new reality.  Nigeria used to be divided, our leaders corrupt, some parts largely illiterate, others majorly traders and so on. That was the Nigeria the 80yr old Achebe knew, but that’s all history now. The people AND the leaders are the problem. Our values have evolved (Darwin's theory) under years exposure the stimulus of corruption and division. We (Nigerians- majority) all think alike now. We haven’t been more united in a common belief that all that ‘used to be wrong’, is now right.

Nigeria of today can likened to a guy being in love with a girl but in his fear to express his feeling allowed time to pass and now he has crossed the line where they are ‘best of friends’ and he can’t express his feelings any more. We have long courted all the things ‘that we once thought were wrong’, that now we can’t speak out anymore and perhaps LOVE what we now see. Nigeria has indeed evolved to what it is today. The realities are; PDP (the ruling political party) will be return to power, epileptic power will continue into the next decade, corruption will be rife from the pulpit to the president, kidnapping will continue (the amount demanded may reduce so that volume may increase), education will continue to be appalling and on and on....

I hope am wrong.

Solution; we need an evolution from our new realties to what it is in other parts of the world. A starting point will be to stop blaming the colonial masters (as Achebe often likes to) and face our realities. Anybody born at the time of independence has lived 3yrs beyond his life expectancy (life expectancy in Nigeria is 47.8yrs) and should blame no one but himself. Our pains/problems are self inflicted and so will the right solution.

Chinua Achebe, a professor at Brown University, is the author of “Things Fall Apart.”

AS WE GROW...THE THOUGHT OF A REALIST

As we grow up, we learn that even the one person that wasn't supposed to ever let us down probably will. You'll have your heart broken and you'll break others' hearts. You'll fight with your best friend or maybe even fall in love with them, and you'll cry because time is flying by. So take too many pictures, laugh too much, forgive freely, and love like you've never been hurt.

Life comes with no guarantees, no time outs, and no second chances. You just have to live life to the fullest, tell someone what they mean to you and tell someone off, speak out, dance in the pouring rain, hold someone's hand, comfort a friend, fall asleep watching the sun come up, stay up late, be a flirt, and smile until your face hurts. Don't be afraid to take chances or fall in love, most of all.

Dream what you want to dream, go where you want to go, be what you want to be. Because you have only one life and one chance to do all the things you want to do.  Live in the moment because every second you spend angry or upset is a second of happiness you can never get back. It's true that we don't know what we've got until we lose it, but it's also true that we don't know what we've been missing until it arrives

-Unknown

Favourite Sarah Palin Jokes

''Sarah Palin got an iPad and she was complaining that it's not really that absorbent.'' —Bill Maher

''According to expense reports, Sarah Palin charged the state of Alaska over $21,000 for her children to travel with her on official business. In fairness to Gov. Palin, when she leaves them home alone they get pregnant.'' —Seth Meyers

''This week Sarah Palin's memoir became a bestseller. It's not even out yet. It's being translated in English.'' —Bill Maher 

''People in Alaska are looking forward to Sarah Palin's memoir. They're already calling it 'The Book to Nowhere.''' —David Letterman

''Earlier today, Governor Sarah Palin held a meeting with several leaders from other countries to showcase her foreign policy expertise. That's right, yeah. Experts say the meeting took 90 seconds.'' —Conan O'Brien

''Well, according to a new post-election survey, people want Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012. It says she's been getting thousands of calls from people pleading with her to run, all Democrats.'' —Jay Leno

''Sarah Palin's new autobiography doesn't come out until November, but it is already No. 1 on Amazon. And if you go to the website, it says, 'People who bought this book also bought no other books in their entire life.''' —Jimmy Fallon

Sarah is a bad case of "Payton Place" syndrome. Good looks for white trash but no intellectual value whatsoever. - Unknown

''Naturally the smart thing to do to solve your economic woes is to demonize the Democrats. And of course, Sarah Palin is more than happy to oblige. She's been saying that Obama hangs out with terrorists. And you know, I think the evangelical lady who's in a video getting blessed by a witch doctor, who's married to a secessionist, and can't name a newspaper — she's right, Obama is scary.'' —Bill Maher